
The Arctic is a special region in which periods of glaciation and warming alternate according to their own schedule, and this happens with inexorable consistency. Today, according to the scientific community, we are on the threshold of another period melting Arctic glaciers.
The ice cover in the Arctic should be considered a new formation – it is only about 200 thousand years old. Compared to the Antarctic ice sheet, which is about 34 million years old, this is young. Such a delayed glaciation has its own explanation: the formation of floating ice, unlike continental ice, requires much more severe climatic conditions, which arose in the Middle Pleistocene era.
The formation of ice on the water surface is a long and heterogeneous process that requires extremely low temperatures maintained for a long time. But with global warming, such ice is destroyed much faster than continental ice. During such periods, the Greenland ice cap could persist for centuries, while the ice in Arctic waters melted in a matter of decades.
The latest research by scientists shows that over the past 600-800 years the climate of the Arctic repeatedly was subject to significant climatic fluctuations. During this time, the region experienced at least four large-scale warming events. One of the most significant was recorded at the end of the 16th century. It was then that navigation in the northern latitudes reached an unprecedented scale: just remember the three Arctic expeditions of the Dutch navigator Willem Barents, the purpose of which was to search for the northern sea route to the East Indies.
From the second half of the 17th century, the Arctic was again covered by the Little Ice Age. This is evidenced by the deterioration of climatic conditions in the Russian north, which led to long lean years, cold summers and frosty winters. It is known that the reconnaissance expedition of Roman Neplyuev, which set out in 1652 from Arkhangelsk towards Novaya Zemlya, encountered ice already at Cape Kanin Nos. Today this part of the sea does not freeze even in winter. According to scientists, climate change in the Arctic was caused by natural factors, in particular, solar activity, the speed of the Earth’s rotation and the nature of atmospheric circulation between the North Atlantic and Arctic regions.
Around the last decade of the 20th century, another process of melting of the Arctic ice cover, both floating and continental, began, and it is accelerating. This is evidenced by monitoring of the Arctic region, which is carried out from Russian orbital satellites, which record changes daily.
Employees of the National Research University “MPEI”, based on documentary evidence, have developed a regression-analytical climate model that describes the alternation of warm and cold episodes in the Arctic. According to this model, current warming will peak in the early 2040s, threatening the complete melting of the Arctic ice cap during the summer. One of the most active years in this regard was 2012: then the area of Arctic glaciers decreased by 2 times – from 6.7 million to 3.37 million square kilometers. However, experts do not rule out that this process may slow down due to lower temperatures in the Arctic in recent years.
In October 2018, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory said that about 70% of the Arctic ice cover is seasonal, meaning that no more than 30% of the total ice volume remains in the summer, and seasonal ice becomes much more susceptible to atmospheric fluctuations. Currently, the area of non-melting ice has decreased to two million square kilometers, however, according to experts, in the foreseeable future, in the summer, the Arctic will free its spaces from ice right up to the pole.
Scientists have repeatedly created mathematical models of the development of the warming situation in the Arctic region. According to the most conservative scenario, complete melting of Arctic glaciers could be achieved by the 2060s. The extreme scenario assumes this will happen by 2030. Data show that the bulk of the ice will leave the Central Arctic Basin, with melting only affecting areas of the Canadian Archipelago and northern Greenland.
The Arctic is changing literally before our eyes: glaciers are melting, waves are increasing, storms are intensifying, and at the same time the influence of the North Atlantic on the Arctic Ocean is growing. It is obvious that the impending warming in the near future will turn the Arctic region into a center of biological activity: there will gradually be an increase in the number of bacteria, microorganisms and plankton, which in turn will attract fish and large mammals.
In the scientific world, this process is called “Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean.” And it is already in full swing. During the first stage of the Transarctic 2019 expedition, Russian scientists discovered Atlantic water at a depth of 10 meters, whereas usually it does not rise above a depth of 100 meters. According to polar oceanographer Evgeny Aksenov, enough warm Atlantic water has accumulated in the Arctic Ocean to melt all the floating Arctic ice.
In the presence of dense ice cover, the waters of the Arctic experience a deficiency of sunlight, which stimulates the development of the ecosystem, but after the region is freed from glaciers, everything will change: the penetration of sunlight into the upper layers of the ocean will create favorable conditions for the formation of microorganisms, and with it the entire ocean flora and fauna.
And yet, a significant part of scientists see the Arctic thaw as having negative consequences both for the region’s ecosystem and for the planet’s climate as a whole. First of all, we are talking about an increase in the temperature of the world’s oceans. Over the past two decades it has risen by 0.125 ºС. However, the apparent insignificance of this figure should not be misleading, since we are talking about the entire water surface of the Earth, which acts as a giant “heat accumulator”, absorbing most of the excess thermal energy released in the process of global warming.
Scientists no longer doubt that every year the temperature of the Arctic Ocean will only increase, which will lead to increased water circulation. In conditions of clearing of ice cover, this will mean increased currents and storms, which could lead to catastrophic consequences in the region. Rising temperatures and a lack of ice in the Arctic will have a detrimental effect on some endemic species, in particular the polar bear population. There is a high probability of complete extinction of this mammal from its natural habitat.
Considering that a third of the entire coastline in contact with the world’s oceans is located in the permafrost zone, humanity is in serious danger. Indeed, based on recent observations, we can say with confidence that the rate of melting of Arctic ice layers has increased threefold over the past five years. Scientists are already sounding the alarm: if no measures are taken in the next decade, the melted Arctic ice will add 25 cm to the overall rise in world sea levels. Taking into account the melting of Antarctic glaciers, experts call the figure for the overall rise in water levels by the middle of the century at 3.5 meters. This means that many coastal cities will be at risk of flooding, including Amsterdam, Venice, London and St. Petersburg.
At the same time, the ice-free Arctic will give us a whole bunch of new opportunities. Firstly, this is the emergence of the Northern Sea Route – the most convenient transport artery connecting Europe and Southeast Asia, especially taking into account the difficulties that arise when crossing the Suez Canal. Secondly, we gain access to the fossils of the continental shelf. According to the most rough estimates, the Arctic subsoil hides about 13% of the world’s hydrocarbon reserves, and more than half of this amount is located in Russian waters. Thirdly, countries adjacent to the Arctic, primarily Russia, will be able to more intensively develop fishing, largely due to fish coming from the North Atlantic.
Another consequence of the melting of Arctic glaciers is a noticeable climate change in most of Russia. Today, the Arctic ice cover reflects approximately 60% of sunlight; without it, this figure will drop to 10%, which means that the released heat and the moisture it carries will inevitably fall on the continent. Scientists predict that within a couple of decades Russia will experience much warmer winters and rainy summers, which is comparable to the climate that is more typical of Scandinavian countries.