Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds, Analysis, NBA Betting Pick

Golden State Warriors guard Quinn Cook plays against the Phoenix Suns during an NBA basketball game in Phoenix, Sunday, March 18, 2018. (AP Photo/Chris Carlson)

Chris Carlson/Associated Press

The Golden State Warriors (53-17) will try to avoid falling any further behind the Houston Rockets in the Western Conference standings Monday when they visit the San Antonio Spurs (40-30) as solid road underdogs.

Without injured leading scorers Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant in the lineup, the Warriors have fallen three games back of the Rockets, who also lead the Spurs by a commanding 16 games in the race for the Southwest Division title.

      

NBA point spread: The Spurs opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total is at 206, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NBA betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 108.4-101.1, Spurs (NBA picks on every game)

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Why the Warriors can cover the spread

Golden State has won the past eight meetings with San Antonio straight up, according to the OddsShark NBA Database, going 6-2 against the spread in those games. Curry went down with an ankle injury in the most recent meeting on March 8, leaving early in the first quarter before watching his teammates rally from a 101-93 deficit in the final five minutes to pull off a 110-107 victory.

The Warriors showed a lot of heart in that win despite not covering the spread, and they will lean on their championship experience.

    

Why the Spurs can cover the spread

The Spurs closed as 11-point underdogs in the last meeting and covered easily, but they will have revenge on their minds in this spot. They will not feel sorry for Golden State here, especially at AT&T Center, where they still have one of the best home records in the league at 26-8 SU and 19-13-2 ATS.

San Antonio is riding a three-game winning streak into this matchup both SU and ATS, with the average margin of victory sitting at 19 points. The Spurs are in the middle of a six-game homestand and will not disappoint their fans, who would love nothing more than to see the defending champs go down.

    

Smart betting pick

It is difficult to back the Warriors considering their top scorer right now is former reserve guard Quinn Cook, who is averaging 26.5 points in the last two games.

Golden State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games, losing at home to the Sacramento Kings 98-93 as an 8.5-point favorite on Friday before rebounding Saturday with a 124-109 road win over the Phoenix Suns. San Antonio is a superior opponent and will cover easily.

    

NBA betting trends

Golden State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games.

The total has gone under in seven of Golden State’s last nine games.

The total has gone under in six of San Antonio’s last seven games.

    

All NBA odds and betting trends courtesy of Bleacher Report’s official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week’s top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.